AGP Executive Report

US-Israel Ag Research Funding: The US House approved more money for the Israel-linked BARD agricultural research fund, a move critics say further embeds American science spending in settlement institutions while Palestinians face tighter land and water access. Defense Tech & Drones: Esh-Tech unveiled DroneLight, a low-power laser counter-drone system aimed at hard-killing aerial threats fast, as militaries chase cheaper defenses amid drone-heavy conflicts. AI, Surveillance, and Policing: Britain awarded Palantir a £9m contract to run a national police firearms licensing system, reigniting debate over the firm’s role in sensitive public services and its ties to Israel-linked military and surveillance work. Economy Outlook: The OECD forecasts Israel growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027, with war costs widening the deficit before easing. Energy Shock Watch: OPEC output fell to a multi-decade low as disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and Hormuz risks keep pressure on global oil flows. Labor & Politics Spillover: A US House vote failed to force troop withdrawal from Lebanon, while the UAW endorsed Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, underscoring how Israel-linked geopolitics keeps colliding with domestic industry and labor agendas.

Energy Markets: Oil edged lower as traders weighed demand destruction and the shaky outlook for reopening Hormuz, with WTI down 2.7% and Brent near $93 amid US-Iran talks yielding little progress. Lebanon Humanitarian Strain: The UN doubled its Lebanon aid appeal, seeking $331.5m more to reach 1.4m people as food insecurity worsens and hospitals face damage. Ceasefire Complications: Iran reaffirmed support for Hezbollah and demanded Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon, after Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered truce framework that lacked withdrawal terms. Israel Defense & Intel Footprint: CNN reported Israel covertly deployed elite units and intelligence positions in Azerbaijan, plus sites in Iraq, the UAE and Somaliland, to support surveillance and drone operations during the Iran war. US Labor Watch: The US added 172,000 jobs in May and kept unemployment at 4.3%, a boost for the economy even as energy costs and Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment. Local Policy & Industry: Israel’s defense exports hit record levels, while in the West Bank, US lawmakers urged action to halt E-1 settlement construction. Tech & Infrastructure: Data centers remain a “gold rush” theme, with Israel highlighted as a base for AI infrastructure and global digital investment.

US-Israel Defense Integration Fight: A House vote failed to block a push to deepen US-Israel military tech and industrial cooperation under Section 224 of the FY2027 NDAA, with critics warning it would “permanently expand” military ties. Lebanon Ceasefire in Trouble: Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered Israel-Lebanon truce and Israel said it won’t withdraw troops, keeping uncertainty high for regional security and energy risk premiums. West Bank Settlement Push: Türkiye condemned Israel’s approval of 2,162 new settlement units, while reports also cite additional approvals and settlement expansion plans tied to land seizure. Energy Shock Watch: Oil steadied after earlier drops on ceasefire hopes, but markets remain jittery as Strait of Hormuz disruption and Iran talks uncertainty keep prices and inflation concerns alive. Battery & Storage Momentum: CATL expects energy storage to hit half of global battery sales by 2030, signaling continued investment in grid and renewables pairing. Food-Tech Funding: Ayana Bio and Israel’s Brevel won $1.25M from BIRD to scale plant cell culture bioactives using illuminated fermentation. Israel Export Pressure: A stronger shekel is eroding manufacturers’ export revenues in local-currency terms despite dollar growth, squeezing margins across sectors. Local Industry & Logistics: Israel DMW’s funeral arrangements for his father drew attention, while shipping and energy supply stories continued to track regional volatility.

Markets & Energy: The Dow jumped ~900 points as investors bet on a potential US-Iran peace deal, while oil eased after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire—though traders still worry about Strait of Hormuz risk and low inventories. Defense & Risk Insurance: Fidelis launched a $345m war-risk consortium to expand capacity for terrorism and political violence coverage as Middle East demand strains insurers. Manufacturing Outlook: Interact Analysis downgraded global manufacturing growth for 2026 to 2.6%, citing higher input costs and investment caution tied to the Iran war and tariffs. Tech & Industry: Israel-linked tech and AI momentum stayed in focus globally, even as Broadcom’s forecast rattled sentiment. Israel-West Bank Construction: Israel approved 2,162 new settler homes, drawing condemnation from Türkiye and renewed international legal criticism. Finance & Infrastructure: OPC Energy signed a Bank Leumi financing deal for about 80% of the $1.7–$1.8bn Hadera expansion project. Agriculture & Trade: India’s Modi met Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez to expand energy, critical minerals, and agriculture ties as India seeks new crude sources amid Gulf disruptions. Local Economy: A northern Israel poll showed Likud support slipping as residents report ongoing Hezbollah rocket and drone pressure.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a conditional ceasefire after US-mediated talks, with Hezbollah required to stop firing and withdraw from the Litani area; Lebanon reported strikes soon after the announcement, keeping the truce fragile. Iran-US Talks Stalemate: Iran’s foreign minister said there’s “no tangible progress” with Washington even as Trump suggested an outcome could come “over the weekend,” while Tehran also demanded early release of frozen assets—an obstacle to a broader nuclear deal. Energy Shock & Markets: Oil prices swung on ceasefire hopes, but the Strait of Hormuz risk remains a driver of inflation and currency pressure; Indonesia’s rupiah hit a record low above 18,000 as energy costs and capital outflows bite. Defense Industry: Israel’s defense exports hit a record $19.2B in 2025, and the Defense Ministry says it’s making progress countering Hezbollah’s fiber-optic drones, including new detection and intercept efforts. Humanitarian Logistics: UN says more than 1,000 aid pallets entered Gaza via Kerem Shalom/Karem Abu Salem, though delays at the new checkpoint are still disrupting fuel deliveries. Policy & Trade: Amnesty joined a complaint against FedEx Belgium over alleged unlawful arms transit to Israel; separately, the US forced-labour trade rule flagged Israel among affected economies. Tech & Pharma: Pharming said the US FDA accepted its resubmission for Joenja (leniolisib) for children with APDS, with a PDUFA target date of Oct. 24, 2026.

Defense Exports: Israel’s Defence Ministry says weapons exports hit a record $19B+ in 2025, up 30% year-on-year, with “mega-deals” driving growth despite international criticism. Missile & Drone Readiness: Israel is also pushing long-range strike and missile defense upgrades for a potential next Iran war, including new aerial refueling capacity. West Bank Construction: The Knesset approved plans for 2,162 new settlement homes, deepening disputes over Palestinian statehood. US-Israel Friction: Trump confirmed he called Netanyahu “crazy” over Lebanon fighting, saying it’s complicating Iran peace talks—while Netanyahu insists relations remain strong. Energy Shock Watch: Oil markets brace as Hormuz disruption risks crude near $150, while the OECD warns prolonged Middle East disruption could dent global growth through 2027. Gas & Shipping: Bangladesh approved extra LNG cargoes amid supply uncertainty, and Iran signaled it will keep striking Gulf sites tied to US attacks on shipping. Tech & Security Funding: Coralogix raised $200M as it expands in India for AI security and observability demand. Food Market Rules: Israel’s Knesset advanced a bill to cancel the 2021 kashrut reform, raising questions about competition and potential food price effects.

Middle East Energy Shock: The US said it intercepted Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Kuwait and Bahrain and carried out “self-defence” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island after renewed Gulf attacks, keeping pressure on shipping and oil as talks with Iran appear fragile. Oil & Fertilizer Cost Spiral: The IEA warned global oil stockpiles could fall to “critical levels” before summer, while OECD flagged recession risks if the conflict drags into 2027—raising energy, fertilizer and industrial input costs. Crypto Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s largest crypto exchange Nobitex and three others, targeting alleged sanctions-evasion through digital assets. Israel Tech & Industry: Vadzo Imaging launched HDR GigE embedded cameras for drones/UAVs and factory automation, while Israel’s innovation sector remains strong on exports even as R&D and senior roles reportedly shift abroad. Local Business Signals: Israel’s North gets NIS 13b for shelters and infrastructure, and the government revises market timings citing longer daylight—small moves, but they affect day-to-day commerce.

Defense Exports & Policy: Israel’s defense exports hit record levels in 2025, with missiles and air-defense systems driving demand as the war reshapes procurement priorities. EU Arms Trade Friction: France barred Israel’s defense ministry from Eurosatory, allowing only Israeli firms to show air-defense products—an escalation in political pressure that could ripple through smaller suppliers. Iran Deal Standoff & Energy Markets: US-Iran talks remain in flux as Trump insists negotiations are ongoing while Iran reviews terms and delays responses; the Strait of Hormuz stays a key risk factor for oil, shipping, and inflation. Shipping Costs Surge: Container rates jumped by at least $1,000 per FEU on peak demand layered over Hormuz disruption, while MSC reported a vessel hit near Umm Qasr. UAE-Israel Trade Push: Two Israeli delegations are set to visit the UAE next week, including a transport team discussing an India–Middle East–Europe corridor, reflecting growing wartime alignment. Tech & Mobility: Uber, NVIDIA and Israeli Autobrains plan a robotaxi service in Munich, signaling accelerating Israeli high-tech spillover into European mobility. Industrial Relief in the US: Trump cut tariffs on farm and construction equipment to 15% to support US industry and investment. Food & Fertilizer Capital Markets: Oman’s OMIFCO plans a 25% stake IPO in Muscat, betting on fertilizer demand resilience despite regional shipping shocks.

UN Human Rights: UN experts condemned Israel’s Gaza escalation, saying displacement and attacks on civilian systems are worsening conditions for children. Lebanon Diplomacy: France’s UN envoy warned Israel’s Lebanon campaign risks repeating past occupation mistakes, while Iran says any deal hinges on Israel ending attacks. Ceasefire Friction: Despite Trump’s claims of Israel–Hezbollah “mutual cessation,” Beirut flights stayed disrupted and Iran halted US talks, threatening Hormuz. Energy & Shipping Shock: Strait of Hormuz risk is pushing oil volatility and raising war-risk premiums for tankers and cargo; insurers report pricing jumping up to 1% of vessel value per voyage. Food Supply Strain: UK food banks saw demand surge since the Iran war began, with many charities facing closure without surplus-food support. Israel Policy & Trade: Knesset revoked Smotrich’s VAT exemption expansion, a blow to plans that critics say would undercut local retailers. Israel Tech & Industry: Vadzo Imaging launched a USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 UVC camera family on Infineon’s FX20 platform, targeting industrial automation and edge AI. API Security: PlainID was named a Gartner “Hype Cycle” sample vendor for API access control as AI agents become primary API consumers. Markets: Asian stocks swung on Middle East uncertainty while oil and risk assets tracked shifting Iran–US and Lebanon headlines.

Middle East Energy Shock: Iran suspended indirect talks with the US and threatened to fully seal the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil up more than 7% before some pullback as Trump said negotiations were still “continuing at a rapid pace.” Shipping & Costs: The IMO warned thousands of seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf because conditions are still too dangerous for crew changes, while analysts at OPEC said any Hormuz disruption could last through year-end. Israel Defense Industry: France barred Israel’s official participation in Eurosatory near Paris, limiting Israeli defense firms to air-defense displays only. Tech & Defense Innovation: Israel’s defense sector highlighted rapid responses to drone threats, including “attack drones that attack drones,” and a separate report noted Motorola Solutions’ $1.5b deal to buy Israeli firm D-Fend. Retail Tech: Nayax launched AI-powered product discovery and personalization for retailers, aiming to unify online and in-store shopping data.

Israel-West Bank Construction: A Palestinian watchdog says Israel’s Higher Planning Council is set to discuss plans for at least 2,721 new settlement units across multiple West Bank areas, alongside zoning and land-use changes. Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped more than 2% as the US and Iran traded fresh strikes and Israel pushed deeper into Lebanon, reviving fears for Strait of Hormuz shipping and global supply. US-Iran Talks Under Strain: Trump said Iran “really wants to make a deal” while the US hit Iranian radar/drone sites after a drone shootdown; Kuwait reported intercepts during retaliatory attacks. Global Shipping & Costs: The Hormuz risk is also feeding higher container shipping rates and keeping energy-risk premiums elevated. Tech & Jobs in Israel: Wix, an Israel-based company, announced layoffs tied to AI and currency pressures, adding to the week’s broader tech workforce churn. Defense Industry: South Korea says it has localized a key laser component for its Cheongwang air-defense system, supporting mass production. Agriculture & Fire Risk: An ancient olive grove in Israel was badly damaged by a fire, with farmers seeking help to save remaining trees.

Energy & Shipping: Iran says it has reasserted full control over the Strait of Hormuz and will target vessels that don’t follow IRGC rules, as US-Iran ceasefire talks remain unresolved and Trump weighs a “final determination” on reopening the shipping lane. Gas & Industry: Iran reports it has restarted gas production at three South Pars offshore platforms after US-Israeli strikes disrupted processing, a key signal for regional energy continuity. Israel Fuel Costs: Israel’s Ministry of Energy cuts 95-octane gasoline by 27 agorot per liter from midnight, citing a stronger shekel and lower global prices. Regional Food Logistics: Aqaba Port in Jordan received 44,000 tons of US rice for Iraq despite disruptions, underscoring how Middle East conflict keeps pressuring supply chains. EU Energy Policy: The EU is considering a temporary freeze of its Russian oil price cap as Strait of Hormuz turmoil lifts energy costs. Security & Crossings: Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian man attempting to climb the barrier near Al-Ram, highlighting ongoing friction around access to work. Defense Industrial Integration: Congress advances a US-Israel military-industrial cooperation push, aiming to formalize deeper defense tech and production ties.

US-Iran Deal Stalls: Washington says it’s “more than capable” of resuming war if talks fail, as Trump weighs a “final determination” on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear red lines. Shipping & Energy Shock: The US disabled another blockade-breaching merchant vessel (Gambia-flagged Lian Star), while oil prices slid on hopes for a ceasefire extension; analysts warn any strait reopening won’t quickly restore normal flows. Nuclear Safety Alarm: UN atomic chief Rafael Grossi warns attacks on nuclear power plants are becoming a dangerous pattern, citing incidents near Abu Dhabi’s Barakah plant. Israel-Lebanon Front: Israeli strikes intensified in southern Lebanon as evacuation warnings went out, even after rare direct talks in Washington. Local Industry & Environment: Israel designated eight northern forests as natural reserves, boosting legal protection for about 27,000 dunams. West Bank Violence: Settlers attacked homes and farmland across the occupied West Bank, damaging vehicles and trees. Defense Tech Watch: Iran says it will set up a civilian drone support center, while India’s drone market growth is accelerating amid regional conflicts.

Israel Tech & Jobs: Wix, the Israel-based website builder, is cutting about 1,000 roles (roughly 20%) as it restructures for AI and absorbs pressure from a stronger shekel. Gulf Energy Watch: US-Iran talks over a 60-day ceasefire extension and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved after a White House Situation Room meeting ended without a decision; Trump’s “red lines” include nuclear limits and mine removal, while Iran says no final MoU is in place. Shipping & Costs: With Hormuz disruption still shaping oil flows, analysts flag knock-on risks for global energy and consumer prices, while gold’s unusual war-driven swings hint at market stress. Defense & Regional Industry: US Defense chief Pete Hegseth says Washington can restart strikes if no deal is reached and touts ramping up the defense industrial base. Local Front: In parallel, Israeli strikes in Lebanon reportedly intensified, with Lebanon’s health ministry citing casualties including medical personnel. Humanitarian Pressure: UN rights investigators say Gaza deaths rose sharply since Eid despite a ceasefire, as Israel orders expanded deployment covering most of the Strip.

Iran Deal Decision: Trump said he will make a “final determination” in the Situation Room on a 60-day Iran ceasefire extension, tying it to opening the Strait of Hormuz “no tolls” and dismantling Iran’s nuclear path, including “unearthed” highly enriched uranium—while Iran’s negotiators warn they trust actions, not promises. Energy & Shipping Shock: The talks hinge on Hormuz reopening for unrestricted oil and LNG flows, with markets reacting to de-escalation signals even as mine-removal and enforcement details remain disputed. Gulf Security Posture: A Wall Street Journal report says the UAE carried out dozens of coordinated airstrikes with the US and Israel, targeting Iranian military and energy assets in and around Hormuz. Israel-Hezbollah Tech Focus: IDF Chief Eyal Zamir said operational and technological solutions are being rolled out against Hezbollah’s first-person-view drone threat. Israel-Industry Links: Israel’s defense and energy push continues alongside corporate moves, including Elbit’s anti-drone work and new energy infrastructure planning. Diplomacy Beyond the Middle East: Nigeria and Israel moved to deepen ties across agriculture, healthcare, tech and security. Regional Economics: ECB research warns the Iran war could “doubly scar” euro zone consumers, while inflation pressures spread through fuel-dependent economies.

Energy & Shipping: Strait of Hormuz traffic ticked up slightly despite the war, with a handful of supertankers transiting, but daily crossings remain far below pre-conflict levels as brokers warn mine clearance and new war-risk insurance are needed to restore normal flows. US-Iran Talks & Israel’s Stakes: A tentative MoU would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen Hormuz shipping without tolls, but the deal still hinges on Trump sign-off amid fresh strikes and disputes over enriched uranium. Israel’s Industry Push: Israel says it’s boosting gas output and defense exports as Leviathan upgrades target higher capacity and new military deals underline growing industrial momentum. Inflation Pressure: A key US inflation gauge accelerated in April, while war-driven energy costs are also squeezing consumers and raising political pressure. Regulatory Watch (Agri): The FTC is probing fertiliser price spikes tied to the Iran conflict, adding strain to US farm margins. Tech & Manufacturing: Vadzo Imaging launched a new high-speed global-shutter USB camera for industrial automation and robotics. Biotech Markets: SciSparc gained regulatory approval for an acquisition stake in an Israeli clinical-trial data software firm, lifting biotech sentiment. EU/Regional Policy: EU sanctions expanded against Israeli settler-related entities, adding compliance and reputational risk for regional operations.